Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.008755 0.009873 0.011098 0.012543 0.014206 0.016063 0.018302
2024-12-22 0.006695 0.008132 0.009844 0.012050 0.014832 0.018251 0.022807
2024-12-29 0.005724 0.007299 0.009285 0.011996 0.015642 0.020429 0.027283
2025-01-05 0.005272 0.007001 0.009284 0.012561 0.017214 0.023689 0.033566
2025-01-12 0.004598 0.006303 0.008639 0.012128 0.017305 0.024856 0.036998
2025-01-19 0.004092 0.005768 0.008138 0.011807 0.017468 0.026085 0.040624
2025-01-26 0.003762 0.005440 0.007888 0.011803 0.018074 0.028020 0.045597
2025-02-02 0.003616 0.005365 0.007992 0.012336 0.019562 0.031508 0.053658
2025-02-09 0.003352 0.005081 0.007746 0.012278 0.020062 0.033406 0.059205
2025-02-16 0.003162 0.004893 0.007626 0.012405 0.020876 0.035923 0.066255
2025-02-23 0.002934 0.004622 0.007347 0.012227 0.021124 0.037438 0.071592
2025-03-02 0.002792 0.004481 0.007265 0.012378 0.021973 0.040159 0.079766
2025-03-09 0.002615 0.004273 0.007066 0.012324 0.022483 0.042390 0.087532
2025-03-16 0.002379 0.003948 0.006641 0.011820 0.022081 0.042783 0.091425
2025-03-23 0.002238 0.003777 0.006470 0.011769 0.022560 0.045035 0.099951
2025-03-30 0.002197 0.003777 0.006606 0.012322 0.024329 0.050276 0.116643
2025-04-06 0.002027 0.003531 0.006267 0.011898 0.023996 0.050839 0.121812
2025-04-13 0.001887 0.003330 0.005995 0.011584 0.023859 0.051824 0.128271
2025-04-20 0.001797 0.003215 0.005880 0.011580 0.024407 0.054489 0.139814
2025-04-27 0.001773 0.003226 0.006009 0.012102 0.026212 0.060464 0.162027
2025-05-04 0.001688 0.003110 0.005876 0.012045 0.026655 0.063108 0.175106
2025-05-11 0.001628 0.003038 0.005828 0.012169 0.027549 0.067053 0.193123
2025-05-18 0.001543 0.002912 0.005655 0.011994 0.027683 0.068990 0.205193